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After the Thaw
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Jeff Colvin

Management Consultant & Founder of Link, a Management Consulting Group

Although winter approaches, the thaw has begun. Economic growth in the 3rd quarter was 8.2%; the highest quarterly growth in gross domestic product (output of the nation's goods and services) in almost 20 years.

Analysts say we are poised for a solid performance in 2004 that could ease America's biggest economic problem, joblessness. Consumer confidence jumped in November to the highest level in more than a year. This index, reflecting consumer expectations, rose to 91.7 percent in November, up from 81.7 percent in October.

But unemployment is still 6% nationwide despite the signs of a stronger economy. And the rate in Silicon Valley is much higher at 7.5%. How many of the 441,000 new jobs in October were here in Silicon Valley? And so the thrust of this month's article… cautions when coming out of the freeze.

Companies, and the people in them, are slowly beginning to defrost, warm-up, and begin a new cycle of prosperity after 3 or more years in a frozen state. This exciting time brings with it new employees, new processes, and a responsibility for smarter and more controlled spending and operations.

Thawing out too slowly will leave you behind in the competitive scramble for new products, creative service offerings, and the attraction and addition of new technical or managerial talent to your organization. Thawing out too quickly can create a precarious position for your stockholders, customers, and employees by creating unrealized hype that we left behind in the 90's.

What have we learned from this downturn and what can we put into place to be prepared for the next long freeze? Like many, we can put up the stop sign in the intersection after the tragic traffic accident. Or we can begin to look around at the people and processes in our day to day departmental and organizational life and proactively build the next great business. Conceive of a business that would be nearly immune and insulated from the economic challenges because of its agility and responsiveness to its customer's needs and the market.

Has the cure been found, or are we just coming out of a cryogenic freeze because we are tired of being so cold? The caution is clear; do not just ride the wave of the economic tide. Take the responsibility now to build the business strategies and plans to establish your viability and keep you warm through the quarters, years, and decades to come.

Avoid having to make a quip like Arnold Schwarzenegger made last month in Silicon Valley. "The last time I felt icy cold like this was when I told the Kennedys I'm marrying Maria."

Thaw cautiously and keep you and your company warm. Happy Holidays!

A Cautious Thawing Process

Don't Thaw Too Fast
- Target spending to leveraged activities
- Add personnel strategically
- Avoid hype internally/externally
- Go back to the basics (mission/vision)

Don't Thaw Too Slowly
- Allocate dollars where they will provide return on investment
- Pilot new processes for results first
- Develop/promote realistic projections
- Benchmark the competition

Learn Why You Were In A Deep Freeze
- Analyze your faux pas
- Blame the plan, not the economy
- Find "cause and effect" relationships
- Make the hindsight 20-20.

Prevent A Future Frozen State
- Solicit input from many levels and positions for prevention tactics
- Build contingency plans and controls
- Develop world class people & processes
- Create a balanced scorecard for early identification, response, and recovery


Jeff Colvin (Jcolvin@linkllc.com) founded Link, a management consulting group in 1997 whose mission is dedicated to the Systems, Structures, and Behaviors that make people and companies successful. Link's bottom line focus on process improvement is achieved through the facilitation and training of cross-functional teams to address key strategic goals. Learn more about Jeff Colvin & Link...

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