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Web Services: Floor Wax or Dessert Topping?
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Summary
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To summarize, we want to make it clear that in our opinion, Web Services is NOT a market. It is the next wave in software technology, based on advances in XML and other standards, that will enable new ways for enterprises to develop, integrate, deploy and manage applications. Web Services promise to make the simple act of connecting different pieces of software significantly easier.

There will be initial demand for development tools, application delivery platforms and management tools to facilitate the adoption of Web Services. These company's products are primarily valued for Web Service technology innovation within the IT community. This is the start-up opportunity, for the most part. We expect some new technology leaders will emerge and money will be made here, but these will be niche markets contributing to the overall success of the industry with a constrained maximum size. Established EAI, B2B commerce, supply chain management, other enterprise application vendors and SIs should make the majority of the big money from Web Services. We expect that innovation will be rampant in the early stages as the vendors who cleverly use the Web Services architectural model to better deliver existing application types or to conceive of and deliver new form of applications will be the big winners. In fact, those who don't embrace this model may rapidly lose market position to those who do.

We believe that Web Services technology is still moving through the early adopter phase and will shift to a more mainstream phase by mid 2004 and become widespread by 2005. Given the current economic climate, IT departments will be cautious in making investments and they should be looking at Web Services based on a clear business value. IT management will look for sound investments, technical interoperability and business process integrations. The need for interoperability with existing infrastructure and applications -- whether these are based on Java technologies, Windows applications, or homegrown legacy systems -- will continue to drive purchase decisions for information technology. IT management will also be looking for quick return on investment where expectations are now three to six months to show return.

Therefore, we expect that early adopters will continue to use Web Services for organic, discrete internal projects. The next phase will see more systematic deployment within the enterprise for application integration. We also expect continued efforts in B2B and supply chain management solutions to achieve ubiquitous collaboration between partners and suppliers. Lastly, as companies are looking to increase control of their business, the need exists for various business units to be connected and we believe that the granular nature of Web Services solutions will increase their ability to do so.

In terms of which software vendors will win - the jury is out as there is a lot of innovation expected during the next few years. However, we predict IT departments will continue to look towards their existing software vendors for technology solutions, but they will test promising technologies that fill an existing gap. Therefore, we believe as technology is such a dynamic industry, there will be room for a few point solutions and innovative products from start-ups to be deployed quickly and cost effectively, with minimal disruption on the current infrastructure, which will deliver the ultimate goal of easing the pain of software development and application integration.

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Barbara Angius Saxby (barbara@accelentmarketing.com) founded Accelent (www.accelentmarketing.com) to help software startups accelerate marketing strategies, planning, and execution. She specializes in positioning and launching enterprise infrastructure and application companies. Barbara is a senior marketing executive with over 20 years experience in strategic marketing management and has done extensive work internationally.

 

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